Multiple myeloma (MM) is the second most common hematological malignancy, presenting a growing public health challenge. According to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, the Multiple Myeloma disease burden has shifted significantly over the last three decades. Although global mortality rates have recently stabilized or declined in some regions, the incidence continues to rise, especially among older adults.

Understanding the Multiple Myeloma Disease Burden

The study highlights that MM incidence grew moderately from 1990 to 2021. This rise primarily impacts aging populations in high and high-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. Notably, males face a higher burden compared to females. Middle SDI regions, including East Asia and Western Sub-Saharan Africa, showed the most significant increases in incidence. Moreover, clinicians are observing higher diagnostic rates as healthcare infrastructure improves in these areas.

Regional Variations and Sociodemographic Factors

The analysis reveals a strong correlation between a country's Human Development Index (HDI) and its disease trends. Interestingly, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for MM incidence and mortality correlate negatively with HDI. This suggests that while developed regions have higher absolute rates, developing regions are experiencing faster growth. Furthermore, high sociodemographic index regions showed the most notable declines in age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) among females since 2000. Consequently, gender-specific trends remain a key area for future research.

Projections for 2050 and the Role of BMI

Future forecasts using time-series models indicate a continued rise in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) through 2050. Researchers anticipate that ASDRs and age-standardized DALY rates will specifically increase among males. Additionally, the impact of high body mass index (BMI) as a risk factor is trending upward across all SDI regions. This metabolic risk factor now accounts for an increasing fraction of MM deaths and disability-adjusted life years. Therefore, lifestyle interventions and improved screening remain critical priorities for healthcare systems worldwide.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which demographic is most affected by the rising incidence of Multiple Myeloma?

The rising incidence primarily affects aging populations and males. High-income and high-middle SDI regions currently bear the highest absolute burden, though middle SDI regions are seeing faster growth rates.

How does Body Mass Index (BMI) impact the Multiple Myeloma disease burden?

High BMI is a significant attributable risk factor. Data from 1990 to 2021 shows an upward trend in MM deaths and DALYs linked to high BMI across all sociodemographic regions.

What are the projected trends for Multiple Myeloma by 2050?

Projections indicate rising incidence rates for both sexes. However, death rates and DALYs are expected to increase specifically among males through 2050, highlighting the need for targeted male-specific healthcare strategies.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute medical advice or a professional relationship. Always seek the advice of a qualified healthcare provider for any questions regarding a medical condition. Refer to the latest local and national guidelines for clinical practice.

References

Qu F et al. Incidence and mortality of multiple myeloma: Global, regional and national estimates and projections from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Br J Haematol. 2026 Mar 08. doi: 10.1111/bjh.70415. PMID: 41796105.

Zeng P et al. Multiple Myeloma in the Global Burden of Disease Study: Statistical Analysis and Trend Forecast From 1990 to 2021. Scilit. 2026 Feb 24.

Zhang T et al. The global multiple myeloma incidence and mortality burden in 2022 and predictions for 2045. JNCI J Natl Cancer Inst. 2024; djae321. doi: 10.1093/jnci/djae321.